The chances of
March 18, 2008
One of the more interesting topics in poker is the ability to determine the chances of you hitting a card that you want on the turn and on the river. It is important for you two know that there are fifty two cards in the deck, there are four suits, and there are thirteen different number and face cards. Chances of hitting a similar suit are roughly one forth while chances of hitting the same number or face are one of thirteen. How do you calculate your odds then?
I will teach you how to calculate basic odds of poker cards. This is a simple calculation and is not the strict probability of you hitting the card that you want. Take note of this. This technique is a simple way of calculating your odds of hitting a card in the simplest way possible. A more accurate way of predicting the card outcome is more complicated and can only be performed by skilled mathematicians in the middle of a poker decision. If you are skilled then try to find the way to calculate it but if you are the average Joe then you can use this technique.
If you have a king and a queen, what are your chances of hitting a pair on the flop? If you think about it, you just need one pair, right? So you add the chances of hitting another king and another queen on the first three cards. You add two thirteenth plus two thirteenth plus another two thirteenths. You will end up with six thirteenths or almost one half. In this calculation, you can see that you have a fifty percent chance of hitting one pair on the flop. If you know this then you can raise the pot by a significant amount. You can be confident that your chances of hitting a pair is like a coin toss.
Another example to warm your chances calculation is this. If you have a king and a queen, what are your chances of hitting a flush on the flop? In this case, you have to multiply the probabilities of the cards because you need to have all the cards suited. You multiply one forth by one forth and by another one forth. You will end up with one twelfth or roughly ten percent. If you are hoping to get a flush on the flop then going all in is not such a good idea. You should be careful when you have those suited cards. There are even jokes about those people who think suited cards will really give them an edge in poker. Suited cards are simply suited, that is it. Your chances for a flush are really pretty slim, you know.
I hope you will be able to use these rule of thumb chances computations in the middle of a poker game. You should be able to add fast and multiply fast. You should be able to work with fractions easily. This is the mathematical way of winning at poker. Use these techniques as you wish.